A new wave of struggle
Re: syria
Sorry to keep posting things, but a few days ago the fleeing Syrian, Iranian and Russian troops left behind an ammo dump filled with tons of weapons and ammunition near a major town west of Aleppo. And: “At the Kweires airbase near Aleppo, militants have reportedly captured a Soviet S-200 air defense system, a Mi-8 helicopter, an L-39 aircraft, an Ababil-3 drone, a ZSU-23-4 Shilka [“a lightly armored Soviet self-propelled, radar-guided anti-aircraft weapon system”] and a Pantsir-S1 air defense system, according to pro-Russian Telegram channels.” Now the rebels are said to be attacking the major city of Hama, which is farther to the south. Meanwhile, I've seen reports of solidarity demonstrations of some kind in the southern suburbs of Damascus.
Re: syria
About the sudden change in fortunes of the struggle in Syria
Qunfuz is the blog of Robin Yassin-Kassab, who has been referred to several times in items on the D/SWV list and is the co-author of "Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War". Today he wrote "History made on the Ground" on Qunfuz (https://qunfuz.com/2024/12/01/history-m ... he-ground/). Below are some excerpts from it, including the reminder that "the civil revolution that began in 2021 was largely crushed. ... There are no longer hundreds of independent, quasi-democratic local councils to organize civil life."
I think it is important that Yassin-Kassab says this. I think about things like this when I see people gushing over "the sudden rapid advance of the Syrian revolution ". What is happening now is very important, and will have a major impact if it sustains itself. But this is not the great socialist or workers' revolution (most of the radical left that writes about revolution knows only one type of revolution, dreading the idea of different "stages" or types of movements and changes.). It is not even clear what trend will eventually dominate, if Assad falls. Yassin-Kassab hopes that the variety of forces which are taking part in the fight against Assad will dilute the position of fundamentalism.
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... ‘The rebels’ here means a military alliance under the umbrella of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – the greatly moderated and better organised reincarnation of Jabhat al-Nusra. It’s still an authoritarian Islamist militia, but it’s not at all ‘like ISIS’ as the uninformed are saying. It broke definitively from the ISIS stream in 2014. It has a much more positive policy towards sectarian and ethnic minorities than ISIS. It allows far greater space for pluralism, disagreement and consultation than ISIS did (though it still arrests and detains some political opponents, and tortures them). Unlike ISIS, it doesn’t field a Hisba Diwan (or morality police) to interfere in people’s daily lives. Its focus is Syrian rather than transnational. It doesn’t threaten the west.
Its ‘Fath al-Mubeen’ military alliance also incorporates lots of members of other less authoritarian groups that were displaced to Idlib and then gobbled up by HTS. HTS has not been popular among people in Idlib – they’ve been demonstrating against it for months – but its offensive is wildly popular, because the people want to be rid of Assad and his foreign backers, and to return to their homes.
......................................
What this offensive shows, therefore, is Syrians organizing themselves, and Assad’s gangster regime crumbling as soon as Russian and Iranian imperialists are unable to protect it. When Assad subjugated free Aleppo in 2016, 80 percent of his ground troops were Iranian-organized transnational Shia militia, and the air force was Russian. Now the Iranian militia system is weak as a result of its targeting by Israel. In particular, Hizbullah was decapitated. (After 2011 Hizbullah turned itself from a resistance organisation into a counter-revolutionary tool, and was infiltrated and now destroyed by Israel as a result – but that’s another story.) The Russians are pre-occupied with their invasion of Ukraine. In these circumstances, the unsustainable nature of regime rule comes inevitably to the fore. Anybody who knew Syria knew that the regime was widely hated, that it had utterly destroyed the Syrian economy, and that it was held in place only by foreign powers. But nobody expected such a dramatic and sudden turnaround.
......................................
This doesn’t mean that the democratic revolution is about to seize power, or that Syria is about to enter paradise. The civil revolution that began in 2011 was largely crushed, its experiments in democracy eliminated, its most grassroots military forces co-opted or gobbled up by more powerful and authoritarian actors. There are no longer hundreds of independent, quasi-democratic local councils to organise civil life. The country is divided, traumatised, cursed by warlords and foreign occupiers. But suddenly it looks as if it may be possible not only to challenge but to end the rule of the monster, which means it may become possible for millions to go home, and therefore for civil society to begin to reconstitute itself. The future can’t start until Assad is gone.
......................................
The fact that other parts of Syria are rising, and under different commands, is important because it means HTS influence will be diluted. If several parts of the country are liberated, HTS will have to build a united front with people with other perspectives and political backgrounds
......................................
People who still choose to believe that the fascist Assad regime – which murdered tens of thousands of Palestinians, and recently withdrew further from its side of the Golan so that Israel could advance – is ‘anti-Zionist’, well, I really can’t help them. Freedom for the Syrians from fascism and foreign occupation is a noble aim in itself. So is freedom for the Arabs in general from the dictatorships which abuse them. This is actually a precondition for Palestinian liberation.
Qunfuz is the blog of Robin Yassin-Kassab, who has been referred to several times in items on the D/SWV list and is the co-author of "Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War". Today he wrote "History made on the Ground" on Qunfuz (https://qunfuz.com/2024/12/01/history-m ... he-ground/). Below are some excerpts from it, including the reminder that "the civil revolution that began in 2021 was largely crushed. ... There are no longer hundreds of independent, quasi-democratic local councils to organize civil life."
I think it is important that Yassin-Kassab says this. I think about things like this when I see people gushing over "the sudden rapid advance of the Syrian revolution ". What is happening now is very important, and will have a major impact if it sustains itself. But this is not the great socialist or workers' revolution (most of the radical left that writes about revolution knows only one type of revolution, dreading the idea of different "stages" or types of movements and changes.). It is not even clear what trend will eventually dominate, if Assad falls. Yassin-Kassab hopes that the variety of forces which are taking part in the fight against Assad will dilute the position of fundamentalism.
=====================================================================
... ‘The rebels’ here means a military alliance under the umbrella of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – the greatly moderated and better organised reincarnation of Jabhat al-Nusra. It’s still an authoritarian Islamist militia, but it’s not at all ‘like ISIS’ as the uninformed are saying. It broke definitively from the ISIS stream in 2014. It has a much more positive policy towards sectarian and ethnic minorities than ISIS. It allows far greater space for pluralism, disagreement and consultation than ISIS did (though it still arrests and detains some political opponents, and tortures them). Unlike ISIS, it doesn’t field a Hisba Diwan (or morality police) to interfere in people’s daily lives. Its focus is Syrian rather than transnational. It doesn’t threaten the west.
Its ‘Fath al-Mubeen’ military alliance also incorporates lots of members of other less authoritarian groups that were displaced to Idlib and then gobbled up by HTS. HTS has not been popular among people in Idlib – they’ve been demonstrating against it for months – but its offensive is wildly popular, because the people want to be rid of Assad and his foreign backers, and to return to their homes.
......................................
What this offensive shows, therefore, is Syrians organizing themselves, and Assad’s gangster regime crumbling as soon as Russian and Iranian imperialists are unable to protect it. When Assad subjugated free Aleppo in 2016, 80 percent of his ground troops were Iranian-organized transnational Shia militia, and the air force was Russian. Now the Iranian militia system is weak as a result of its targeting by Israel. In particular, Hizbullah was decapitated. (After 2011 Hizbullah turned itself from a resistance organisation into a counter-revolutionary tool, and was infiltrated and now destroyed by Israel as a result – but that’s another story.) The Russians are pre-occupied with their invasion of Ukraine. In these circumstances, the unsustainable nature of regime rule comes inevitably to the fore. Anybody who knew Syria knew that the regime was widely hated, that it had utterly destroyed the Syrian economy, and that it was held in place only by foreign powers. But nobody expected such a dramatic and sudden turnaround.
......................................
This doesn’t mean that the democratic revolution is about to seize power, or that Syria is about to enter paradise. The civil revolution that began in 2011 was largely crushed, its experiments in democracy eliminated, its most grassroots military forces co-opted or gobbled up by more powerful and authoritarian actors. There are no longer hundreds of independent, quasi-democratic local councils to organise civil life. The country is divided, traumatised, cursed by warlords and foreign occupiers. But suddenly it looks as if it may be possible not only to challenge but to end the rule of the monster, which means it may become possible for millions to go home, and therefore for civil society to begin to reconstitute itself. The future can’t start until Assad is gone.
......................................
The fact that other parts of Syria are rising, and under different commands, is important because it means HTS influence will be diluted. If several parts of the country are liberated, HTS will have to build a united front with people with other perspectives and political backgrounds
......................................
People who still choose to believe that the fascist Assad regime – which murdered tens of thousands of Palestinians, and recently withdrew further from its side of the Golan so that Israel could advance – is ‘anti-Zionist’, well, I really can’t help them. Freedom for the Syrians from fascism and foreign occupation is a noble aim in itself. So is freedom for the Arabs in general from the dictatorships which abuse them. This is actually a precondition for Palestinian liberation.
Re: syria
From reading other sources, I think Robin is right about HTS. For years there have been protests against various of its policies in Idlib, and this year there were demonstrations for the removal of its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani. Also, I think he's right about HTS being diluted. For something like a year the Druze around Sweida have been having weekly demonstrations, and the region is almost autonomous. Someone recently organized some protests south of Damascus. Some YPG or other Kurdish units have been fighting, and were apparently given the responsibility of securing Aleppo—where there are many Kurds –after it was captured. And after Robin wrote this, a new fighting command has been set up in southern Syria.
Re: syria
Reports on this year's protests against HTS and al-Julani.
https://www.dw.com/en/syrian-protesters ... a-69166416 -
https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives ... al-jolani/ -
https://www.instagram.com/alihajsuleima ... -D9tdo1O1/ -
https://www.syriahr.com/en/342238/
Another article says HTS only controls half of the Idlib governorate, plus parts of the Aleppo, Hama and Latakia governorates.
Tonight there's an unconfirmed report that al-Julani has been killed by a Russian airstrike.
https://www.dw.com/en/syrian-protesters ... a-69166416 -
https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives ... al-jolani/ -
https://www.instagram.com/alihajsuleima ... -D9tdo1O1/ -
https://www.syriahr.com/en/342238/
Another article says HTS only controls half of the Idlib governorate, plus parts of the Aleppo, Hama and Latakia governorates.
Tonight there's an unconfirmed report that al-Julani has been killed by a Russian airstrike.
Re: A new wave of struggle
This is some information about the new “Southern Command” that I shared with Robin Yassin-Kassab today.
“Beginning on 29 November 2024, southern Syrian opposition groups began assaults on Daraa Governorate and As-Suwayda Governorate in Southern Syria, along the nation's border with Jordan. The offensive was publicly announced as a coordinated effort with the Northwestern Syria offensive to implement a pincer movement towards Damascus. The Syrian Armed Forces initiated counter attacks, including a deployment of military personnel to the strategic city of Daraa.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_ ... ive_(2024)
I saw the leading group's statement to the people on Facebook, but I couldn't read it, nor can I find it again. And it seems very unlikely to me that it is part of HTS.
“Beginning on 29 November 2024, southern Syrian opposition groups began assaults on Daraa Governorate and As-Suwayda Governorate in Southern Syria, along the nation's border with Jordan. The offensive was publicly announced as a coordinated effort with the Northwestern Syria offensive to implement a pincer movement towards Damascus. The Syrian Armed Forces initiated counter attacks, including a deployment of military personnel to the strategic city of Daraa.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_ ... ive_(2024)
I saw the leading group's statement to the people on Facebook, but I couldn't read it, nor can I find it again. And it seems very unlikely to me that it is part of HTS.